In 2024, desiccated coconut prices experienced a significant upward trend across all three major producing countries, correlating with shifts in global supply and demand. The Philippines saw a steady increase from US$ 1,764/MT in January to US$ 2,315/MT in December. Indonesia's prices surged more dramatically, rising from US$ 1,771/MT in January to US$ 3,200/MT by the end of the year. Sri Lanka exhibited a similar pattern, with prices escalating from US$ 1,750/MT in January to US$ 3,760/MT in December. This sharp rise suggests heightened demand, potential supply constraints, and increased production costs. In contrast, 2023 was characterized by relative price stability, with only minor fluctuations. The Philippines maintained prices between US$ 1,690–1,874/MT, with a slight dip mid-year before recovering. Indonesia saw gradual increases from US$ 1,400/MT in early 2023 to US$ 1,720/MT by December, while Sri Lanka’s prices ranged from US$ 1,552/MT in July to US$ 1,788/MT in November. The contrast between the two years highlights a shift in market dynamics, where the acceleration in 2024 suggests supply chain disruptions, rising input costs, or increased international demand, particularly impacting Indonesia and Sri Lanka.

As the price increased, the total import value increased by 2.7%, reaching US$ 498.1 million during January-October 2024. Despite this increase, the global market for desiccated coconut experienced a 5.9% decline in import volume, dropping from 322,445 metric tons (MT) in January-October 2023 to 303,313 MT in the same period of 2024. This was most likely driven by supply constraints, higher production costs, or shifts in trade patterns. The overall decline in global volume could be attributed to factors such as reduced supply from key producing countries, increased competition from alternative products, or changing consumer demand in certain regions. However, the growth in value despite lower volume indicates that demand remains strong in certain key markets, sustaining higher prices.

Within this global context, the EU27 and US markets showed contrasting trends. The EU27 significantly increased its imports by 14.8%, from 80,272 MT to 92,192 MT, while the US saw a modest growth of 5.0%, reaching 34,544 MT. However, while the EU27's import value rose by 9.0%, the growth rate was lower than its volume increase, indicating a decline in the average price per ton. In contrast, the US market maintained a more balanced growth, with import value rising 4.5%, closely matching its volume increase. This suggests that prices remained stable in the US, while the EU27 may have benefited from lower-cost supplies. The overall trends highlight strong demand resilience in the EU and US, even as the global market faces supply challenges.

At the supply side, the export performance of desiccated coconut from the Philippines showed a notable recovery in 2024 after experiencing a decline in both volume and value in previous years. Export volumes dropped slightly from 165,069 MT in 2021 to 156,361 MT in 2023, but in 2024, shipments surged to 173,045 MT, marking a significant rebound. In terms of export value, there was a sharp decline from $400.1 million in 2021 to $247.2 million in 2023, indicating weaker prices in global markets. However, by 2024, export revenue improved to $296.0 million, reflecting both higher volumes and a partial recovery in prices. This resurgence aligns with the observed upward price trends in desiccated coconut markets during 2024, suggesting stronger global demand and possibly tighter supply conditions in other producing regions.

The Philippines saw an overall increase in desiccated coconut exports, with the United States (39,819 MT, +20.2%), Netherlands (29,552 MT, -1.6%), and China (10,819 MT, -3.8%) remaining the top destinations. Key growth markets included Paraguay (+20,400%), Brazil (+97%), Indonesia (+173%), and Turkey (+23%), while exports to France (-24.3%), Singapore (-87.5%), and Ireland (-71.8%) declined. Southeast Asia and South America showed increasing demand, with strong growth in Brazil and Indonesia, while Europe had mixed performance, with Germany and the Netherlands maintaining strong imports, but France and Ireland declining. New markets such as Bahrain and Iran emerged, while some destinations like Serbia, Qatar, and Georgia saw no imports. The data highlights the expansion into new markets while maintaining strong exports to key destinations, signaling a growing global demand for Philippine desiccated coconut.

Indonesia, one of the world’s largest exporters of desiccated coconut, has shown a fluctuating trend in exports over the past five years. In 2024, export volume reached 119,231 MT, showing a slight recovery from 113,671 MT in 2023 but still lower than the 2021 peak of 139,932 MT. Interestingly, the export value in 2024 surged to $176.62 million, significantly higher than $125.96 million in 2023, suggesting that higher prices have helped offset the decline in volume. The 2022 drop in both volume and value aligned with a global slowdown, but the 2024 rebound in export value could indicate stronger pricing power or increased demand from alternative markets outside the US and EU. Indonesian exporters may need to continue diversifying their market reach and improving production efficiency to navigate the uncertainties in global demand.

Indonesia’s desiccated coconut exports in 2023-2024 show significant shifts in key markets, reflecting evolving global demand. While major destinations like Singapore, Germany, and Russia saw an increase in imports, others such as China and Saudi Arabia experienced declines. Notably, Singapore remained the largest importer, rising from 32,593 metric tons in 2023 to 34,222 metric tons in 2024. European markets, including Germany (6,826 MT) and Poland (2,846 MT), maintained strong demand, while Russia recorded a sharp increase to 9,513 MT. In contrast, China’s imports dropped by over 50% to 2,710 MT, possibly due to changing trade dynamics or domestic supply adjustments. Emerging markets such as Thailand (4,516 MT) and the Netherlands (5,204 MT) displayed strong growth, highlighting potential diversification in Indonesia’s export strategy. These shifts underscore the importance of monitoring global trade patterns and market-specific factors influencing Indonesia’s desiccated coconut industry.