MARKET REVIEW OF COCONUT OIL

January 2021

 Price of coconut oil showed a bullish market since second half of 2020. Price average in the second half of 2020 was US1,136/MT which was 27% higher than the price average in the first half of 2020. The price average even much higher than second half of 2019. It was higher by 47% as opposed to the second half of 2019. The price is expected to appreciate the following foreseeable lower production and stocks. Ending stocks of coconut oil at the end of 2020 is forced to be dropped to 0.41 million tons which was 17.6% lower compared to the stocks a year earlier. Price of coconut oil is forecasted to reach more than USD1,500/MT in the second half of 2021.

Global demand of coconut oil weakened in 2020 attributed to the higher price and the global pandemic. Philippine Statistics Authority reported that during the period of January-September 2020, Philippines shipped 662,659 MT coconut oil to international market. The export recorded a drop of 32% as compared to the export volume a year earlier. Import of the oil by European countries, the major destination of coconut oil from Philippines, declined to 32%. Similarly, US imports of the oil from Philippines also went down to the level of 131,192 MT and dropped by 52%.

 Amid Covid-19 pandemic, import of lauric oils by US increased during the period January-November 2020. US Census Bureau recorded US imports of the oils reached 761,655 MT during the period valued at USD775.6 million. It was 3.5% higher compared to the previous year’s volume. The increase was mainly contributed by the increase in the import of palm kernel oil. US import of coconut oil during the period lowered by 2.4%. The shift of demand was mainly due to the high premium price of coconut oil over palm kernel oil.

 

Table 2. US Imports of Lauric Oils, January-November 2019/2020

         

 

Jan-Nov 2019

Jan-Nov 2020

Change (%)

CNO

Volume (MT)

423,217

412,864

-2.4

Value (USD'000)

502,981

483,315

-3.9

PKO

Volume (MT)

312,867

348,791

11.5

Value (USD'000)

260,031

292,273

12.4

Source: US Census Bureau

Meanwhile, a weak demand of lauric oils was showed in Europe continent. During period of January-September 2020, 1.4 million MT of lauric oils was shipped to European countries. It was 11% lower that the import volume a year earlier. The import decline was for both coconut oil and palm kernel oil which mainly attributed to the pandemic.

 

Table 3. European Union (EU28) Imports of Lauric Oils, January – September 2019/2020

 

Jan-Sep 2019

Jan-Sep 2020

Change (%)

CNO

Volume (MT)

717,437

658,176

-8.3

Value (USD'000)

730,916

684,086

-6.4

PKO

Volume (MT)

847,898

733,258

-13.5

Value (USD'000)

518,253

549,222

6.0